Bangkok, Fitch Ratings maintains Thailand’s credit rating at BBB+ and maintains its credit outlook at Stable. GDP is expected to grow 3.8 percent in 2024.
Mrs. Jindarat Wiriyataweekul, Public Debt Consultant A Public Debt Management Office spokesperson revealed that Fitch Ratings (Fitch) has maintained Thailand’s credit rating (Sovereign Credit Rating) at BBB+ and maintained the outlook for Thailand’s creditworthiness (Outlook) at Stable (Stable Outlook) after expected. that the Thai economy will grow continuously from 2.8 percent in 2023 to 3.8 percent in 2024, supported by a recovery in exports Demand for spending on goods and services has increased. from stimulating government spending and economic stimulating policies From temporary exemption from visa (Visa Exemption) for Chinese and Indian tourists. It has promoted the rapid recovery of the tourism sector.
When the government makes policy implementation more clear. Recommends the government must maintain more fiscal discipline. Fitch believes Thailand’s ranking under the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) will improve. Because politics is more stable Accept that Thailand still faces risks from the global economic slowdown, drought, and delays in preparing the annual budget. In the public finance sector, Fitch expects the government’s budget deficit to increase from 3.0 percent of GDP in 2023 to 3.7 percent of GDP in 2024, higher than the median for countries with high credit ratings. same level (BBB Median = 2.9 percent), but will begin to decrease to 3.5 percent in 2025 (BBB Median = 2.6 percent), using investment and social budgets as important
In addition, Fitch expects that the ratio of government debt to GDP in 2025 will increase to 56.8 percent, still higher than the level before the COVID-19 problem but still at the same level as the median. of countries with the same level of credit rating (BBB Peers) at 56.3 percent. In the medium term, in 2027, it is expected that the level will increase slightly to 57.5 percent. It is also believed that the government can still raise funds. within the country amidst the situation of economic fluctuation This is because public debt has a relatively long average lifespan. And most of them are in baht currency. To help alleviate financial risks from the increase in General Government to GDP.
As for the external finance sector, it is strong and able to cope with global financial tensions and geopolitical risks. Fitch expects that in 2023 the current account balance will return to a surplus of 1.0 percent of GDP from a deficit of 3.2 percent. In 2022 and in 2023, it is expected that the level of international reserves to the value of imports will remain at a very high level for 7.1 months, higher than the BBB Median at 5 months. Fitch also follows up to analyze Thailand’s credit rating. is the ability to manage General Government Debt to GDP to a stable level and create growth in the medium term as well as the effectiveness of economic policies.
Source: Thai News Agency