Bangkok, The baht opened this morning at 34.97 baht per dollar. ‘Slightly strengthened’ Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS views the baht today at the level of 34.75-35.00 baht/dollar. The market waits for the Fed’s statement.
Mr. Poon Panitchpibun, money market strategist, Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS, Krung Thai Bank, revealed that the baht opened this morning at 34.97 baht per dollar. ‘Slightly strengthened’ from the previous day’s closing level of 35.04 baht per dollar.
During the previous night The value of the baht is gradually strengthening. (Oscillates in the range of 34.86-35.07 baht per dollar) following the weakening of the dollar and the contraction of the US 10-year bond yield, which has supported the gold price to rebound from the support zone. Almost +20 dollars per ounce. As a result, some market players may gradually sell to make a profit. The rebound in gold prices and such transaction flows also help support the appreciation of the baht. At the same time, the depreciation above 35.00 baht per dollar o
f The baht has supported market players. Especially some exporters Gradually coming in to sell additional dollars. As a result, the baht is still unable to depreciate far beyond the important resistance zone.
The timing of the decline of the US 10-year bond yield below the level of 4.00% has helped support tech stocks and growth style stocks to rise strongly, such as Nvidia +6.4%, Amazon +2.7%, made by The total tech stock index, Nasdaq, rose +2.20%, while the SandP500 index closed the market at +1.41%.
As for the European stock market, the STOXX600 index turned around and rose +0.38%, supported by an increase in tech stocks and Growth style stocks following the contraction of long-term bond yields ASML +1.4%. In addition, News of the suspension of flights of the Boeing 737MAX9 by the US FAA, which put pressure on Boeing stock prices -8%, also helped Airbus stocks rise by more than +2.5%. However, European stock markets were pressured by a sharp decline of -3% among stocks. energy group After the price of c
rude oil dropped sharply again From concerns about the reduction in Saudi oil selling prices. and the gradual increase in production capacity of the OPEC+ group
On the bond market side, the US 10-year bond yield fluctuates. There was a moment when it dropped below the 4.00% level amidst the risk-taking situation of the US financial market. and the expected inflation rate report by the New York Fed. which has continued to slow down. However, the picture of the US stock market who are gradually coming back to accept additional risks And the attitude of some market players who have become cautious about the CPI inflation report on Thursday has supported the US 10-year bond yield to rebound to 4.01% again. In addition, we still recommend that Long-term bond yields are also at risk of higher volatility. If the US economic data report It came out better than expected during this period. Market players should focus on the Buy on Dip strategy and not chase prices. By trying to take into account the break-even point
or break-even when considering the total return or total return that will be obtained from holding bonds.
On the currency market side The dollar fluctuates in the direction of the US 10-year bond yield, with an initial period of depreciation. before rebounding slightly After 10 years of bond yields, the United States gradually improved somewhat. Overall, the Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped slightly to the level of 102.2 points (oscillating in a range of 102-102.5 points). As for the price of gold. The timing of the downward adjustment of both the dollar and the US 10-year bond yield has supported the price of gold (COMEX gold contract for delivery in February) to rebound above the level of 2,040 dollars per ounce. As a result, some market players are gradually selling gold in those zones to make a profit. This transaction flow also helped the baht to strengthen somewhat.
There won’t be much important economic data to report today, but market players will be waiting for Fed official Michael Barr’s statement a
t 12:00 AM on Wednesday morning. according to time in Thailand To assess the trend of the Fed’s monetary policy. Behind the players in the market including all Fed officials Everyone has received the latest employment data report.
As for the trend of the baht value, Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS estimates that the momentum of the baht’s depreciation still exists. After the previous day, the baht depreciated faster and stronger than we expected, until it tested the 35.00 baht per dollar zone. This is the upper limit that we assessed this week. (Causing the upper range of the baht value to move this week up to 35.30 baht per dollar) However, it is estimated that the resistance level is 35.00 baht per dollar. It is also a resistance that may be difficult to pass. This is because market players are gradually waiting to sell dollars in that zone. As for some market players who have the view that The baht may tend to gradually strengthen. You can wait for the opportunity to increase your Long THB position.
Krungthai G
LOBAL MARKETS views that factors that may create volatility in the baht during a period when the market still lacks important economic data reports are gold transaction flows, including foreign investor fund flows. As for the fund flow of foreign investors, it is seen that there is a risk that foreign investors may gradually sell additional Thai assets, causing the baht to still not be able to strengthen again. Until we see a return to net purchases of Thai assets by foreign investors.
In addition, one should be wary of volatility as the market gradually receives statements from Fed officials. which may result in whole dollar US bond yield and gold prices fluctuate until affecting the direction of the baht
During this period, it was found that the volatility of the baht remained at a level higher than the historical average. (Looking at the weekly baht range) causing Krungthai GLOBAL MARKETS to maintain its recommendation that entrepreneurs should use a variety of hedging tools, such as Options, to increase
efficiency in hedging against exchange rate risk. And in addition to using the aforementioned tools Choosing to transact in local currency is another interesting way to manage exchange rate risk. Entrepreneurs should compare transaction costs and hedging plans before making every decision.
Looking at the baht today It is expected to be at the level of 34.75-35.00 baht/dollar.
Source: Thai News Agency